Oceans Rise, But Do They Fall

      2050 Old and New Ocean Rise in Southern Vietnam & Ho Chi Minh City                                                                                                       NewYorkTimes

The inevitable rise of the world’s oceans over the next decades is going to create much larger problems than even the most pessimistic current estimates suggest.  The results of a more accurate method of analysis of the risk of ocean rise were published last week and the picture presented suggests that it’s not just cities at risk by large pieces of heavily populated land that will be inundated. 

The authors of a paper published Tuesday developed a more accurate way of calculating land elevation based on satellite readings, a standard way of estimating the effects of sea level rise over large areas, and found that the previous numbers were far too optimistic. The new research shows that some 150 million people are now living on land that will be below the high-tide line by midcentury.

Further loss of land to rising waters there “threatens to drive further social and political instability in the region, which could reignite armed conflict and increase the likelihood of terrorism,” said General Castellaw, who is now on the advisory board of the Center for Climate and Security, a research and advocacy group in Washington.

“So this is far more than an environmental problem,” he said. “It’s a humanitarian, security and possibly military problem too.” 

The study suggests that a huge section of southern Vietnam will disappear along with the land upon which 10% of the population of Thailand included much of Bangkok.  Further north in China, Shanghai and the surrounding urban areas will be flooded. In India, the nations financial capital will be washed away.  In the middle east, Basra in Iraq and Alexandria in Egypt will likely be lost to the oceans.