It's Just A Matter of Time - Farewell New Orleans

Climate change is creating a new world.  It’s a new reality that is going to come no matter how many scientists the Trump administration silences. This weekend New Orleans and the Gulf Coast face the potential for a major disaster. 

Two climate change driven events are on a collision course.  The first is the unprecedented flooding in the Mississippi River basin, that has resulted in the most prolonged Louisiana flooding in recorded history.  The second is the potential formation and landfall of a July hurricane (Barry), an event that has happened only three times in 168 years (all three events have occurred in the last 40 years).  The potential result:

A river levee breach would be an entirely different type of flooding disaster than what occurred during Hurricane Katrina, but possibly no less devastating. Depending on where exactly a breach occurred, it may not be possible to return the Mississippi River to its previous state. This would cripple America’s agricultural and petrochemical industries, deal a potentially fatal blow to New Orleans, and change the course of American history.

For six months heavily polluted water has been washed down the Mississippi River into the Gulf Coast estuaries and bayous.  The impact on the regions fisheries and wildlife has already been profound.  The upcoming storm threatens to massively amplify the damage already done.

Fishermen and state government officials agree this long, hot summer may go down in history as one of the most destructive years for Gulf fisheries. The torrent of river water pushing into Gulf estuaries is decimating crab, oyster and shrimp populations. The brown shrimp catch this spring in Louisiana and Mississippi is already down by an estimated 80%, and oysters are completely wiped out in some of the most productive fishing grounds in the country, according to state and industry officials. The polluted freshwater has also triggered algae blooms,which have led to beach closures across Mississippi.

Stronger storms with greater rainfall are the new normal in an area stretching from the Appalachians to the Continental Divide (the entire river system that encompasses the Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio Rivers). Also, part of the new normal is the continued warming of the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which is the thermal fuel that powers tropical storms and hurricanes. New Orleans is a city that sits below sea level and the Gulf Coast fisheries are fragile and already seriously compromised. If the current one two punch doesn’t knock them both out, the odds of the fatal blow just keep increasing.

...the odds are growing that, if not this week, it will happen someday soon. Even if Barry steers away from Louisiana, this won’t be the last time the region has to deal with the dual threat of extreme late-season flooding and extreme early-season hurricanes. As the climate continues to warm, the atmosphere will continue to be able to hold more moisture, increasing the likelihood of intense rainfall in already-wet areas.